Seminar: What Causes Gender Inequality?

- A Working Syllabus -
SOC-UA 937 – Fall 2018

Robert Max Jackson

robert.max.jackson@nyu.edu

https://pages.nyu.edu/jackson/causes.of.gender.inequality/

      In this course we will in­ves­ti­gate what causes in­equal­ity be­tween women and menHow does it arise, why does it take dif­fer­ent forms, why does it vary in de­gree across so­ci­eties, what are the com­po­nents that add up to gen­der in­equal­ity, how do var­i­ous in­sti­tu­tions and prac­tices con­tribute to it, and how does it change?  The course will em­pha­size the his­tory of gen­der in­equal­ity in the United States.

While we focus on gen­der in­equal­ity, we will also seek to un­der­stand so­cial cau­sa­tion more gen­er­ally.  We will ex­plore the di­verse ways so­cial cau­sa­tion works and how we can iden­tify the causes be­hind im­por­tant so­cial phe­nom­ena. 

Table of Contents ...
click on a topic to go to that section

Overview  ·······  Scope, Organization, and Access  Read this first!
Topic I  ·······  Introduction.  What do we mean by gender inequality?
Topic II  ·······  Causality - What are causes, mechanisms, and the like?
Topic III  ·······  How is gender inequality symbolized and reproduced in everyday life?
Topic IV  ·······  Why have women apparently occupied a subordinate position in all societies?
Topic V  ·······  What determines men's and women's roles and positions within families?
Topic VI  ·······  What is the role of sex differences in the functioning and perpetuation of gender inequality?
Topic VII  ·······  What is the role of sexuality?
Topic VIII  ·······  What is the role of violence and intimidation in the relationships between men and women?
Topic IX  ·······  How has the economy influenced men's and women's positions in society?
Topic X  ·······  What role does ideology play in determining the relations between men and women?
Topic XI  ·······  How can we make sense of feminism's fate and role in contemporary U.S.?
Topic XII  ·······  How have political processes and structures sustained men's and women's relative status? 
Topic XIIb  ·······  How do the media influence or reflect gender inequality? 
Topic XIII  ·······  What does the future hold? 

Searching: Before Searching This Page's Content, Please Read
'a note on the "hidden" material below'.
Table of Contents ...
click on a topic to go to that section

Overview  ·······  Scope  Read this first!
Topic I  ·······  Introduction.
Topic II  ·······  Causality
Topic III  ·······  Everyday life?
Topic IV  ·······  Origins and biology?
Topic V  ·······  Families?
Topic VI  ·······  Sex differences?
Topic VII  ·······  Sexuality?
Topic VIII  ·······  Violence and intimidation?
Topic IX  ·······  Economic processes?
Topic X  ·······  Ideology?
Topic XI  ·······  Feminism?
Topic XII  ·······  Political processes? 
Topic XIIb  ·······  The media? 
Topic XIII  ·······  The future? 

Searching: Before Searching This Page's Content, Please Read
'a note on the "hidden" material below'.

Table of Contents

De­scrip­tion – Scope, Or­ga­ni­za­tion, and Ac­cess:

The Scope of the Top­ics and Ma­te­ri­als. We know a lot about gen­der in­equal­ity – its his­tory, how peo­ple ex­pe­ri­ence it in their lives, the ways it varies in in­ten­sity and form across time and place, the be­liefs that make it seem nat­ural, and much more.  The out­pour­ing of re­search and com­men­tary on gen­der in­equal­ity over the past half cen­tury has been ex­tra­or­di­nary.  Un­for­tu­nately, de­spite all this, our un­der­stand­ing of what causes gen­der in­equal­ity re­mains trou­bled. Both or­di­nary peo­ple and ex­perts (such as schol­ars) com­monly fluc­tu­ate be­tween sim­plis­tic ex­pla­na­tions that founder under close scrutiny and throw­ing up their hands in frus­tra­tion over what can seem an enigma be­yond human com­pre­hen­sion.  Here we will seek to sur­mount this dilemma.  We will ex­plore di­verse facets of gen­der in­equal­ity and var­ied ideas about what causes might be de­ci­sive.  We will also look care­fully at the ways we can iden­tify and ver­ify the causes of so­cial phe­nom­ena.  Through these ef­forts we will aim both to en­hance our un­der­stand­ing of what pro­duces gen­der in­equal­ity and to im­prove our gen­eral abil­ity to do causal so­cial analy­ses ef­fec­tively.

The class or­ga­ni­za­tion and goals. In this class, each week's work will be or­ga­nized around an an­a­lyt­i­cal task, as well as a set of read­ings.  Rather than fo­cus­ing on dis­cus­sion of the read­ings, the an­a­lyt­i­cal tasks in­volve at­tempt­ing a causal analy­sis of some as­pect of gen­der in­equal­ity re­lated to the week's issue, build­ing on the ma­te­ri­als we read (in brief pa­pers of a cou­ple pages).  The ap­proach in this class seeks to de­velop an­a­lyt­i­cal skills as well as un­der­stand­ings of the rel­e­vant lit­er­a­ture by stress­ing doing ac­tual analy­ses of gen­der in­equal­ity. (Note: this class does not have an exam nor a final paper.)

All class meet­ings are or­ga­nized as dis­cus­sions.  Part of our class dis­cus­sions will be on the com­mon read­ings and part on stu­dents' ef­forts to ex­plore the an­a­lyt­i­cal tasks  each week.  We will ad­just the time de­voted to these two goals ac­cord­ing to our ex­pe­ri­ences over the class.  Every week, stu­dents will ini­ti­ate dis­cus­sions on read­ings and pa­pers. To make this work, each week's pa­pers will be ex­changed (elec­tron­i­cally) with enough lead time that we can all read all the pa­pers prior to the class meet­ings.

Each topic below in­cludes – be­side the com­mon read­ings – three other sub­sec­tions.  These are: an an­a­lyt­i­cal task, rec­om­mended read­ings, and re­lated read­ings.  The an­a­lyt­i­cal task is the writ­ing as­sign­ment for the week.  Every­one should read the com­mon read­ings while doing the an­a­lyt­i­cal task (and be pre­pared to dis­cuss them).  In each of these pa­pers – al­ways  brief pa­pers – stu­dents will try out causal ideas re­lated to the week's topic.  Rec­om­mended and re­lated read­ings are op­tional ma­te­ri­als use­ful for those who want to dig deeper into a topic.  To sim­plify nav­i­gat­ing through the syl­labus, these sub­sec­tions are hid­den until the viewer clicks on the sub­sec­tion head­ing, then they will ap­pear.

Most of our read­ings will be ar­ti­cles avail­able for down­load­ing.  The links will ap­pear in the  on­line ver­sion of the course syl­labus.  Ex­cerpts from Down So Long . . .: The Puz­zling Per­sis­tence of Gen­der In­equal­ity (book man­u­script by RMJ not yet pub­lished) will sim­i­larly be avail­able for down­load­ing from the class web site.  (As we will read se­lec­tions from Jack­son's book Des­tined for Equal­ity [Har­vard U Press] through­out the course, you might want to buy it or bor­row it.) 

Any stu­dent un­fa­mil­iar with the study of gen­der, can (and prob­a­bly should) pick up the ba­sics from a stan­dard text­book in the area – I rec­om­mend Michael Kim­mel's Gen­dered So­ci­ety (which I use in my basic gen­eral un­der­grad­u­ate class on gen­der, so used copies should be easy to find).

For fur­ther rel­e­vant sources, my read­ing lists/syl­labi for two grad­u­ate courses might be valu­able.  The one most di­rectly re­lated is What Causes Gen­der In­equal­ity: An­a­lyt­i­cal Foun­da­tions; a more gen­eral class, What Causes In­equal­ity: An­a­lyt­i­cal Foun­da­tions, may pro­vide ma­te­ri­als for broader ques­tions about dif­fer­ent kinds of in­equal­i­ties and how to think about gen­der in­equal­ity in re­la­tion­ship to them.

A note on the "hid­den" ma­te­r­ial below:  Each sec­tion of this guide in­cludes – be­side the com­mon read­ings – three sub­sec­tions, one for an an­a­lyt­i­cal task, one for rec­om­mended read­ings, and one for re­lated read­ings.  To sim­plify nav­i­gat­ing through the course guide, only the head­ings for these sub­sec­tions are ini­tially vis­i­ble.  The con­tents of all these sub­sec­tions are hid­den (so that the be­gin­ning ap­pear­ance of the page is sim­i­lar to a stan­dard syl­labus) until the viewer clicks on a sub­sec­tion head­ing, then its con­tents will ap­pear.  While this or­ga­ni­za­tion is help­ful for ne­go­ti­at­ing the page most of the time, it can be­come an ob­sta­cle if we want to search the page (for ex­am­ple, for a par­tic­u­lar ar­ti­cle) as searches will ig­nore the hid­den ma­te­r­ial (that is, if you search a page you are view­ing in an in­ter­net browser, the search will only ex­am­ine what is shown on the page at that time).  To over­come this lim­i­ta­tion, you can "open" all the hid­den sec­tions to show every­thing on the page by click­ing the § sym­bol at the top of the page.  (To re­store the page to the nor­mal con­densed view, sim­ply re­load the page which will col­lapse all the "hid­den" sec­tions to their usual look).  The table of con­tents at the top of this page will aid speedy nav­i­ga­tion to any topic, which is par­tic­u­larly help­ful if you re­veal all the "hid­den" ma­te­r­ial.

The Top­ics

I. In­tro­duc­tion.  What do we mean by gen­der in­equal­ity?

To an­a­lyze the causes of gen­der in­equal­ity, we need to know what we mean by gen­der in­equal­ity.  How can we con­ceive of and talk about gen­der in­equal­ity in ways that are gen­eral enough to apply across the range of rel­e­vant phe­nom­ena, con­sis­tent enough to min­i­mize con­cep­tual am­bi­gu­i­ties, and pre­cise enough to be an­a­lyt­i­cally ef­fec­tive?  Gen­der in­equal­ity has been ex­tra­or­di­nar­ily di­verse and wide spread.  Women and men are un­equal in every con­ceiv­able way in end­less cir­cum­stances, both im­me­di­ate and en­dur­ing, by both ob­jec­tive cri­te­ria and sub­jec­tive ex­pe­ri­ence.   So, what counts as gen­der in­equal­ity? Can we char­ac­ter­ize it in ways that let us con­fi­dently and im­par­tially as­sess when there is more or less of it?

II. Causal­ity - What are causes, mech­a­nisms, and the like?

We ca­su­ally refer to causes and ef­fects in nor­mal in­ter­ac­tions all the time.  We all con­duct our lives – choos­ing ac­tions, mak­ing de­ci­sions, try­ing to in­flu­ence oth­ers – based on the­o­ries about why and how things hap­pen in the world.  From the early stages of child­hood we at­tribute causes, build­ing a vi­sion of the so­cial (and phys­i­cal) world that makes it un­der­stand­able.  Every ac­tion, every choice about what to do, is based on our an­tic­i­pa­tion of its ef­fects, our un­der­stand­ings of con­se­quences.  An­a­lyt­i­cal and sci­en­tific rea­son­ing has a sim­i­lar form, but re­quires that we ap­proach cau­sa­tion more sys­tem­at­i­cally and self-con­sciously.

III.  How is gen­der in­equal­ity sym­bol­ized and re­pro­duced in every­day life?

To start our in­ves­ti­ga­tion of the causes of gen­der in­equal­ity, we will con­sider how peo­ple ex­pe­ri­ence and act out gen­der in their day to day lives.  We want to think about the most basic ques­tions.  Why and when do women and men act dif­fer­ently?  Why and when do peo­ple re­spond dif­fer­ently to women than men?  How do all these pri­vate in­di­vid­ual ac­tions when taken to­gether over time in­flu­ence the un­der­stand­ing of gen­der in a cul­ture and gen­der in­equal­ity?

IV. Why have women ap­par­ently oc­cu­pied a sub­or­di­nate po­si­tion in all so­ci­eties?  And how does ex­plain­ing the "ori­gins" of gen­der in­equal­ity re­late to ex­plain­ing the "per­sis­tence" of gen­der in­equal­ity?

Al­though some schol­ars may ques­tion if women have been sub­or­di­nate in all so­ci­eties, all agree that men have been dom­i­nant in most so­ci­eties al­though the de­gree of dom­i­nance varies greatly.  This raises the very tricky ques­tion, how do we ex­plain the preva­lence of male dom­i­nance?  This ex­ceed­ingly elu­sive ques­tion con­tin­ues to elude any an­swer that will evoke a con­sen­sus. 

V.   What de­ter­mines men's and women's roles and po­si­tions within fam­i­lies?

Fam­ily and kin­ship are po­ten­tially rel­e­vant to gen­der in­equal­ity in var­ied ways and a lot of work had pur­sued such is­sues.  Prob­a­bly the two most im­por­tant gen­eral is­sues in­volve the ways that women and men are un­equal within fam­i­lies and the ways that fam­ily or­ga­ni­za­tion both con­tributes to and is in­flu­enced by gen­der in­equal­ity be­yond the fam­ily in­sti­tu­tion.  We will just touch the sur­face of these is­sues this week.

VI. What is the role of sex dif­fer­ences in the func­tion­ing and per­pet­u­a­tion of gen­der in­equal­ity?

At­tempts to ex­plain gen­der in­equal­ity at all lev­els are haunted by es­sen­tial­ism.  Es­sen­tial­ist ar­gu­ments im­pute dis­tinc­tive at­trib­utes to women and men and at­tribute the so­cial dif­fer­ences be­tween women's and men's ac­tiv­i­ties, op­por­tu­ni­ties, sta­tuses, and roles to these dis­tinct at­trib­utes.  Even the­o­ret­i­cal analy­ses of gen­der in­equal­ity that ex­pressly re­ject the pos­si­bil­ity of con­se­quen­tial, in­her­ent sex dif­fer­ences,  com­monly build their ex­pla­na­tions of in­equal­ity on gen­der dif­fer­ences.  To com­pli­cate mat­ters, es­sen­tial­ist ar­gu­ments pro­claim­ing su­pe­rior at­trib­utes for women exist along­side of the ar­gu­ments pro­claim­ing women in­fe­rior.  More­over, while for some, es­sen­tial­ism al­ways means a dif­fer­ence based in bi­ol­ogy or ge­net­ics, for oth­ers it in­cludes cul­tural dif­fer­ences that are em­bod­ied in women and men.

VII.  What is the role of sex­u­al­ity?

Sex­u­al­ity has been evoked in mul­ti­ple ways in the study of gen­der in­equal­ity.  Some have con­sid­ered it as a pos­si­ble mo­ti­vat­ing cause for in­equal­ity, oth­ers have ex­plored how gen­der in­equal­ity can mold the ex­pe­ri­ence and prac­tice of sex­u­al­ity, and oth­ers have tried to the­o­ret­i­cally in­cor­po­rate sex­u­al­ity as a pe­cu­liar ten­sion be­tween women and men that me­di­ates both the causes and ef­fects of gen­der in­equal­ity.  Es­sen­tially, every­one rec­og­nizes sex­u­al­ity is crit­i­cally im­por­tant to gen­der in­equal­ity, but we lack agree­ment or clar­ity on how it mat­ters.

VIII. What is the role of vi­o­lence and in­tim­i­da­tion in the re­la­tion­ships be­tween men and women? 

Most the­o­ret­i­cal ap­proaches to gen­der in­equal­ity sug­gest that vi­o­lence be­tween women and men plays a role in sus­tain­ing in­equal­ity; some also point to­ward vi­o­lence as an ini­tial cause.  A re­cur­ring issue con­cerns the de­gree to which vi­o­lence is an ex­pres­sion or re­sult of gen­der in­equal­ity or, al­ter­na­tively, is a cause of in­equal­ity.  The sep­a­rate roles of rape, ha­rass­ment, and do­mes­tic vi­o­lence, and their re­la­tion­ships to each other are an­other crit­i­cal ques­tion.  Much re­search and ar­gu­ment has also been fo­cused on the ques­tion of women's ag­gres­sive im­pulses and ac­tions. 

IX.  How has the econ­omy in­flu­enced men's and women's po­si­tions in so­ci­ety?

Analy­ses of gen­der in­equal­ity at­tribute great im­por­tance to the econ­omy.  Gen­der in­equal­ity ap­pears every­where em­bed­ded in eco­nomic in­equal­ity, in the sense that a crit­i­cal as­pect of gen­der in­equal­ity in­volves un­equal ac­cess to eco­nomic re­sources and po­si­tions.  This re­la­tion­ship be­comes clearer in more "ad­vanced" so­ci­eties where eco­nomic or­ga­ni­za­tion has be­come in­sti­tu­tion­ally dif­fer­en­ti­ated from kin­ship and po­lit­i­cal or­ga­ni­za­tion.  Some­times this un­equal eco­nomic ac­cess is un­der­stood as an ex­pres­sion of gen­der in­equal­ity, some­times a cause of gen­der in­equal­ity, some­times a re­sult. Many analy­ses con­sider it all three.

X. What role does ide­ol­ogy play in de­ter­min­ing the re­la­tions be­tween men and women?

Ide­ol­ogy is near the cen­ter of al­most all ef­forts to ex­plain gen­der in­equal­i­ties.  Peo­ple's con­cep­tions of mas­culin­ity and fem­i­nin­ity, ideas con­cern­ing the fair­ness of dif­fer­en­tial treat­ment  or ex­pec­ta­tions of women and men, in­ter­nal­ized schema that evoke dif­fer­ent judg­ments of women's and men's ac­tions, rules about proper male and fe­male be­hav­ior ap­plied to chil­dren – all these and more con­cern the in­flu­ence of ide­ol­ogy on gen­der iden­ti­ties, dif­fer­en­tial treat­ment of women and men, and the or­ga­ni­za­tion and per­sis­tence of gen­der in­equal­ity.  Con­versely, each ide­o­log­i­cal be­lief that sym­bol­izes, le­git­i­mates, in­vokes, guides, in­duces, or helps sus­tain gen­der in­equal­ity is it­self a prod­uct of gen­der in­equal­ity.  To un­tan­gle these com­plex causal in­ter­de­pen­den­cies, we must al­ways at­tend care­fully to two kinds of dis­tinc­tions.  First, we must con­sis­tently rec­og­nize dif­fer­ences in lev­els of so­cial or­ga­ni­za­tion, in­clud­ing, among oth­ers, so­ci­etal struc­tures and cul­ture, or­ga­ni­za­tions, so­cial net­works, so­cial processes, and in­di­vid­ual ac­tors.  While it is tempt­ing to treat ide­o­log­i­cal be­liefs as dif­fuse en­ti­ties un­con­nected to iden­ti­fi­able peo­ple, or­ga­ni­za­tions, or struc­tures, the an­a­lyt­i­cal re­sults are poor.  Sec­ond, we must con­sis­tently dis­tin­guish be­tween con­tem­po­ra­ne­ous causes (e.g., the ways that in­ter­nal­ized schema can in­flu­ence in­ter­ac­tions) and asyn­chro­nous or his­tor­i­cal causes (e.g., the ways that changes in do­mes­tic pro­duc­tion  in­duce dif­fer­ent ideas about women's place).  Causal ar­gu­ments about ide­ol­ogy con­sider it as both an ef­fect of gen­der in­equal­ity and a cause of gen­der in­equal­ity, al­though it is ide­ol­ogy's po­ten­tial role as a con­tribut­ing cause that stands out as more the­o­ret­i­cally im­por­tant.

XI.   How can we make sense of fem­i­nism's fate and role in con­tem­po­rary U.S.?

Today, fem­i­nism is both ex­tolled and con­demned, often by peo­ple whose ori­en­ta­tions to­ward fem­i­nism seem to defy their in­ter­ests.  Both the pop­u­lar press and schol­ar­ship have de­voted a lot of ef­fort seek­ing to make sense of peo­ple's be­liefs about fem­i­nism and equal­ity, but these ef­forts have done lit­tle to re­duce the dis­agree­ments.

XII.   How have po­lit­i­cal processes and struc­tures sus­tained men's and women's rel­a­tive sta­tus?

As struc­ture and as actor, the state has been un­avoid­ably cen­tral to on­go­ing prac­tice of gen­der in­equal­ity, to its per­sis­tence, and to changes in the form and amount of gen­der in­equal­ity.

States or gov­ern­ments have power. Through the mil­i­tary and po­lice, a state can en­force con­for­mity to its rules, repel and pun­ish chal­lenges from the scale of in­di­vid­ual acts to col­lec­tive re­bel­lions, and by threat, im­plicit or ex­plicit, deter re­bel­lions from ap­pear­ing. Through the law, reg­u­la­tions, and bu­reau­cratic poli­cies, a state can de­fine what con­sti­tutes ac­cept­able or le­git­i­mate be­hav­ior at all lev­els of so­cial or­ga­ni­za­tion. Through eco­nomic poli­cies of tax­a­tion, ex­pen­di­tures, and re­dis­tri­b­u­tions (such as wel­fare poli­cies or agri­cul­tural sup­ports), a state in­flu­ences the rel­a­tive eco­nomic sta­tus of dif­fer­ent groups.

By act­ing dif­fer­ently to­ward groups with re­gard to any of these as­pects of gov­ern­ment power, a state can cre­ate, re­in­force, or ex­ac­er­bate so­cial in­equal­i­ties. Anal­o­gously, a state can, in the­ory, ob­struct, desta­bi­lize, or di­min­ish so­cial in­equal­ity by using its power in ways that are in­con­sis­tent with so­cial in­equal­i­ties. States de­ter­mine, in­flu­ence, le­git­imize, and sanc­tion rights and op­por­tu­ni­ties; they may do so in more or less egal­i­tar­ian ways.

When sig­nif­i­cant, en­dur­ing, so­cial in­equal­ity ex­ists, those priv­i­leged by that form of in­equal­ity will nor­mally have more in­flu­ence over the state than do those dis­ad­van­taged by the in­equal­ity, and the over­all ef­fect of state poli­cies will re­in­force the ex­er­cise and per­sis­tence of the in­equal­ity. A fun­da­men­tal prob­lem for all state the­o­ries is who or what de­cides state poli­cies and ac­tions. To some de­gree, those "in" the state (elected, ap­pointed, hired, or ap­pro­pri­ated) make de­ci­sions based on their in­ter­ests and out­looks as mem­bers of the state ap­pa­ra­tus. To some de­gree, state ac­tors re­spond to the in­flu­ence of power bro­kers out­side the state, such as the eco­nom­i­cally pow­er­ful. In ei­ther case, when mak­ing pol­icy or strate­gic plan­ning de­ci­sions, those in­flu­enc­ing state ac­tions are in part re­spond­ing to what they per­ceive will be the re­sponses of all ac­tors in the na­tion af­fected by those de­ci­sions.  States, or the po­lit­i­cal ac­tors who com­prise the gov­ern­ment, also have their own in­ter­ests, most no­tably pre­serv­ing their power, and these in­ter­ests are not au­to­mat­i­cally con­sis­tent with the in­ter­ests of dom­i­nant so­cial groups.

These po­lit­i­cal processes may sup­port and en­force gen­der in­equal­ity, pas­sively per­mit it, or op­pose gen­der in­equal­ity (as is true with any form of so­cial in­equal­ity). They may do any com­bi­na­tion of these with re­spect to dif­fer­ent as­pects of gen­der in­equal­ity.  Sus­tain­ing in­flu­ence over po­lit­i­cal processes is a fun­da­men­tal fea­ture and goal of so­cially dom­i­nant groups and the long mo­nop­oly of men over po­lit­i­cal power has both demon­strated and sus­tained gen­der in­equal­ity.  Yet, gov­ern­ment ac­tions have also con­tributed to the de­cline of gen­der in­qual­ity over the past two cen­turies.


XIIb.   How do the media in­flu­ence or re­flect gen­der in­equal­ity?

Com­men­ta­tors often point to­ward media in­flu­ence when they try to ex­plain con­tem­po­rary gen­der in­equal­ity. The­o­ries of media alert us that we must al­ways con­sider rec­i­p­ro­cal causal processes. While any in­di­vid­ual may ap­pear only to be the ob­ject of media in­flu­ence, the con­tent and im­pact of media de­pend greatly on the ex­ist­ing cul­ture and so­cial struc­ture. The re­la­tion­ship of the media to the col­lec­tive mar­ket ef­fect of con­sumers may be com­pared to the re­la­tion­ship be­tween elected pub­lic of­fi­cials and vot­ers. Also, con­sumers have con­sid­er­able free­dom to choose which media out­lets to give their at­ten­tion and peo­ple se­lec­tively in­ter­pret and judge the media to which they are ex­posed. All of this makes the re­la­tion­ship be­tween what is por­trayed in the media and what occur in the "real" world rather com­plex.

XIII.   What does the fu­ture hold?

Where do we go from here? Pre­dict­ing the fu­ture is the ul­ti­mate chal­lenge for causal analy­ses.  To have any po­ten­tial to see into the fu­ture, we need a sound and thor­ough causal the­ory, one that can en­com­pass the range of pos­si­ble in­flu­ences si­mul­ta­ne­ously.  We also need to cope with the un­pre­dictable po­ten­tial ef­fects of processes and events that are out­side the bound­aries of our the­o­ries.  These are ex­tremely dif­fi­cult con­di­tions to meet.  But the need to make some sense of the fu­ture weighs on us.  Will gen­der in­qual­ity con­tinue to de­cline, and greater gen­der equal­ity spread through­out the world?  Are some as­pects of gen­der in­qual­ity par­tic­u­larly re­sis­tant to re­duc­tion, and if so why?  Could change stag­nate?  Be­hind such con­cerns are two prin­ci­pal ques­tions.  What has caused the long-term pat­tern of de­clin­ing gen­der in­equal­ity?  And what has pre­served as­pects of gen­der in­equal­ity in the face of these ac­cu­mu­lat­ing changes?  Com­bin­ing the an­swers to these two ques­tions with an ef­fort to pro­ject the rel­e­vant in­flu­ences into the fu­ture, is the basis for try­ing to un­der­stand the pos­si­bil­i­ties for the fu­ture.  Be­hind this also lies an­other an­a­lyt­i­cal ques­tion with moral over­tones: what does gen­der equal­ity re­ally mean?