8065.1 |
Assessment |
|
Research Question
(Clear, unambiguous) |
"[T]his research will assess the obstacles
facing impoverished consumers living in areas most vulnerable to extreme
weather events, as well as determine the role of government subsidies and
insurance in mitigating these consumers’ systemic risk to such events ....
better inform insurers and advise “vulnerable” consumers ... on the
approximate costs of flood insurance based on an area’s predicted rate of
devastation." Despite the length
of this project summary, it is difficult to discover the research
question. At some points, it seems to
refer to the prediction of future insurance rates conditional on the
probability of an environmental disaster, flooding. At other points, it has vague and ambiguous
language about producing a model of insurance trade-offs in the face of
unpredictable future disasters.
Ultimately, it seems to miss the point, which is to have a clear,
well-defined research objective. |
|
Relevant
Literature |
The brief literature
review is interesting, but the intent is not obvious. Yes, both investments to protect against
damages from potential future natural events and insuring against such events
are controversial issues. This is an
unavoidable consequence of unpredictability, severity, and the complex
intersection between public and private costs of such events. It is not clear where any of this is
going. And the concluding statement,
"Still, to calculate a paradigm that more succinctly builds equilibrium
between insurers and consumers, all consumer vulnerabilities must be
concurrently analyzed in order to predict more accurate insurance rates based
on hazard levels; and, the unit of analysis must depict the most productive
level of understanding for geospatially-informed statistical analysis"
appears to be jargon-laden gibberish. |
|
Causal Interpretations (clear, all
parts defined, mechanisms, controls, plausible) |
No causal analysis appears. The discussion of Edgeworth-Bowley Boxes
and references to equilibrium have the surface appeal of economic concepts,
but have no apparent, realistic goal here. |
|
Data
(variables, sample, comparison) |
The data listed are all
relevant to the study of flooding hazards and insurance rates, but pointing
out that lots of different data sources might be useful is not the same as
identifying what data will be used and how. |
|
Research Value |
With the research so vaguely defined, its value
is necessarily unclear. However, it
should be noted that the key relevant decision-making information for people
in flood zones is simply how vulnerable they are to flooding, what the
likelihood of floods might be, and how much they have to pay for
insurance. Mostly, this is already
available (although the likelihood of events is always ill-defined). This research does not clearly offer
anything more. |
|
Overall |
As now described, the
project seems a problematic combination of high ambition and vague
goals. If it is to go someplace
useful, it needs to focus and scale down. |
|
|
|
|
|
|