6684.1	Assessment
Research Question (Clear, unambiguous)	"How do exogenous shock events, particularly natural disasters, impact the county vote share of the incumbent president, specifically in the counties where the impacts of the events were the greatest?"  Okay.  This seems a bit odd, but it is a plausible research question.  We might wonder why natural disasters are singled out (compared, for example, to wars or economic crises).
Relevant Literature	The studies discussed seem appropriate.  From an analytical perspective, again, the relevant literature does not seem to be limited by a concern with local, natural disasters.  They might be considered a methodological opportunity, as natural experiments, of course, but that is quite different from thinking of them as having substantive significance.
Causal Interpretations (clear, all parts defined, mechanisms, controls, plausible)	It is a general truism that we expect voters - all else being equal - to have a more positive response to elected representatives they believe have served their interests well than to those who they feel did not.  Is there anything else here?
Data (variables, sample, comparison)	The data seem appropriate.
Research Value	Since we would expect that any such effects would dissipate with time, it is unlikely that the responses to this year's natural disasters will be decisive in three years.  Given the contested nature of government, is it is also unclear that such findings would induce greater support for disaster areas.  People outside them also worry about over expenditure.
Overall	The general issue of government response to historic events as an influence on subsequent elections is certainly interesting.  This project needs so conceptual development to capture such interest.