1) Chicago Cubs2007 Record: 85-77 (1st in NL Central, lost in NLDS) Manager: Lou Piniella (2nd Season) New Additions: OF Kosuke Fukudome, RHP Jon Lieber, RHP Jose Ascanio Key Losses: OF Jacque Jones, OF Cliff Floyd, LHP Will Ohman, C Jason Kendall, OF Craig Monroe, OF Angel Pagan, RHP Mark Prior Outlook: The Cubs took advantage of a weak Central last season in winning the division with just 85 wins, and I do not see much changing this year. The Cubs are simply the most balanced team in the division with just enough to get by in all three phases of the game. Fukudome (don't ask me how to pronounce it) gives Chicago a valuable left-handed bat to go with powerful right handed sluggers Soriano, Lee, and Ramirez. Carlos Zambrano is capable of punching someone's lights out at any moment, but when he channels his emotion into getting batters out he can be as dominant as anyone in the game. Ted Lilly, Rich Hill, Sean Marshall, and Jason Marquis round out a decent Cubbies rotation. Carlos Marmol and Bob Howry will compete for the closer's role, meaning Lou Piniella will be spending plenty of time at the drug store buying Rolaids. The Cubs are simply a mediocre team in the worst division in baseball and I see them winning 85-90 games again this year. 2) Milwaukee Brewers2007 Record: 83-79 (2nd in NL Central) Manager: Ned Yost (6th Season) New Additions: RHP Eric Gagne, CF Mike Cameron, C Jason Kendall, RHP David Riske, RHP Solomon Torres, RHP Guillermo Mota, LHP Randy Choate, C Eric Munson, OF Gabe Kapler, IF Abraham Nunez Key Losses: RHP Francisco Cordero, RHP Scott Linebrink, LF Geoff Jenkins, C Johnny Estrada, 3B Corey Koskie, LHP Ray King, RHP Matt Wise, IF Tony Graffanino, OF Kevin Mench, C Damien Miller Outlook: Signing Eric Gagne to a $10 million deal and having his name subsequently appearing on the Mitchell Report a few days later is the equivalent to honeymooning in a five-star Carrabean hotel and then discovering for the first time that your new wife has a kid from a previous marriage. In both cases, I don't see a happy ending, particularly with Gagne's ugly finish to the 2007 season topped off by his fine work in Game 2 of the ALCS. By the way, it shouldn't have come as any shock to anyone that Gagne was on the report in the first place considering his biceps are the size of a normal person's thighs. Anyway, the Brewers should be an exciting offensive ballclub with rookie of the year candidate Ryan Braun moving to left field, Bill Hall moving to third base, and Mike Cameron signed to play center field. They join masher Prince Fielder and J.J. Hardy, and Bernie the Brewer will be busy with all the home runs that will be hit in Milwaukee. The Brewer pitching on the other hand will be an adventure, as on paper it appears it will cost them the division for the second straight season. They brought in five new relievers but need to replace their two best relievers from last year in Cordero and Linebrink. The Brew Crew needs Ben Sheets to stay healthy and Chris Capuano to bounce back after an ugly 2007, as the two head a rotation that includes Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, and the talented Yovani Gallardo. If Milwaukee is going to overtake Chicago they'll need Sheets to pitch like an ace all year long. 3) Houston Astros2007 Record: 73-89 (4th in NL Central) Manager: Cecil Cooper (1st Season) New Additions: SS Miguel Tejada, 2B Kaz Matsui, CF Michael Bourne, IF Geoff Blum, OF Darin Erstad, RHP Doug Brocail, RHP Geoff Geary, RHP Jose Valverde, RHP Oscar Villarreal Key Losses: SS Adam Everett, RHP Brad Lidge, OF Luke Scott, IF Eric Bruntlett, RHP Matt Aybers, LHP Troy Patton, IF Chris Burke, RHP Chad Qualls, RHP Juan Gutierrez Outlook: Houston looked energized and actually played pretty well under interim manger Cecil Cooper. Cooper is now full time manager and the Astros have a lot personnel changes, certainly appearing to be a better team. The Astros have been a horrid offensive team the past couple of years. The "Killer B's" days are officially over with the retirement of Biggio, but the Astros' lineup doesn't look too bad on paper with the additions of Tejada, Bourne, and Matsui. Tejada is yet another player long rumored to be on the Mitchell report, despite mysteriously forgetting how to speak English whenever asked about it in the past. He still should have something left and give the Astros a tough middle of the order along with Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman, and talented second year outfielder Hunter Pence. The Astros bullpen killed them last year with an ERA over five, but adding last year's NL save leader Valverde should help. Roy Oswalt is one of the five best pitchers in the National League and having Brandon Backe healthy will be a welcome sight for Astros fans. Still, there isn't much pitching beyond that. Houston, though improved, will finish .500 at best and finish a comfortable margin behind the Brewers and Cubs. For the record, the "Killer B's" Bagwell and Biggio both deserve to be in the Hall of Fame, maybe not Derek Bell though. 4) Cincinnati Reds2007 Record: 72-90 (5th place in NL Central) Manager: Dusty Baker (1st Season) New Additions: RHP Francisco Cordero, RHP Edinson Volquez, LHP Jeremy Affelt Key Losses: OF Josh Hamilton, LHP Eric Milton, LHP Eddie Guardado Outlook: The Reds, like the Astros, played well down the stretch a year ago to give fans some encouragement going into the new season. Just like the Texas Rangers, the Reds will always find a way to hit enough home runs in their bandbox Great American Ballpark, but pitching always seems to be an issue. Aaron Harang might be the most underrated pitcher in the league as he and Bronson Arroyo make a decent front end of the rotation. Francisco Cordero is the new closer after signing a huge deal, giving the bullpen a much needed makeover. The Reds are banking on a couple of top prospects to contribute, Homer Bailey in particular. There will more energy in Cincinnati under first year manager Dusty Baker, back from his short stint in the Baseball Tonight studio. But ultimately the Reds will not have enough pitching, as usual, but at least the Eric Milton era is over in the Queen City. 5) St. Louis Cardinals2007 Record: 78-84 (3rd in NL Central) Manager: Tony LaRussa (13th Season) New Additions: 3B Troy Glaus, RHP Matt Clement, SS Cesar Izturis, C Jason LaRue, OF Brian Barton Key Losses: 3B Scott Rolen, CF Jim Edmonds, SS David Eckstein, RHP Kip Wells, OF So Taguchi, C Gary Bennett, LHP Mike Maroth, RHP Troy Percival Outlook: Hard to believe this will be LaRussa's 13th season as manager, but I have the feeling 13 will be his unlucky number. Changing of the guard in the Gateway City with Rolen, Edmonds, and Eckstein out, and Glaus, Clement, and Izturis in. I actually like the Clement signing as Dave Duncan has a habit of getting something out of castaways with good stuff (i.e. Joel Piniero last season, Jeff Weaver two seasons ago). Still, when Braden Looper is your second starter, it's going to be a long year. Mark Mulder won't be back until May at the earliest and Chris Carpenter midseason at the earliest. Also, Albert Pujols' (yes, he's still a Cardinal) elbow is not at 100%, yet he decided to forego surgery regardless to avoid missing any time. The Cardinals are old and injury prone, and I see them taking another step back as the 2006 World Series seems like it was decades ago. 6) Pittsburgh Pirates2007 Record: 68-94 (6th in NL Central) Manager: John Russell (1st Season) New Additions: IF Chris Gomez, RHP Jimmy Barthmaier, LHP Phil Dumatrait, RHP Evan Meek, RHP Ty Taubenheim, OF Kevin Thompson, RHP Jaret Wright Key Losses: IF Jose Castillo, IF Cesar Izturis, IF Matt Kata, 1B Josh Phelps, RHP Shawn Chacon, RHP Tony Armas, RHP Solomon Torres, LHP Shane Youman Outlook: The Pirates are the National League version of the Orioles. I sympathize with the fans of a once proud, historic franchise that plays its home games in perhaps the major's best ballpark right on the Allagheny, yet they have not had a winning season in well over a decade. I guess that makes sense when the best acquisition a 68 win team from a year ago makes is adding Chris Gomez. Jason Bay should bounce back from a tough year, and young pitchers Ian Snell and Tom Gorzellany are among the few bright spots on the team. The Pirates actually have produced some good players, but their small market and affinity for mindboggling trades has killed them. They gave away Aramis Ramirez, Oliver Perez, and Kris Benson for virtually nothing, and then acquired aging pitcher Matt Morris and his $10MM pricetag at last year's trade deadline. They have yet another new manager, seemingly their 10th in the past couple years. Like Jim Tracy and Lloyd McClendon before him, John Russell isn't a miracle worker. |